Please follow the ongoing Suppan discussion by clicking on the "comments" link by the topic heading:
Kpanz: I would like to say that Jeff Suppan is not good. He signed a $42 million contract this offseason for 4 years, so you may think he is good...but he's not, trust me. When his deal is up, he'll be 35 years old with 18 years of pitching under his belt. Yes that has become the going rate for good pitching these days, and heck, he was a World Series MVP. BUT, I didn't like the signing then, and after 14 games of seeing him pitch in a Brewers uniform, I really don't like it. What exactly do you expect from Suppan? Because if you say he is struggling right now...I would have to put up an arguement on that one. Right now he is( 7-7) with a 4.69 ERA. Comapring that to his career numbers... they are right on track. For his 15 year career, he is (113-108) with a 4.61 ERA. So, on average, he gives up about 4-5 runs per 9 innings, and loses about the same amount as he wins. So now whats the arguement? "He's a pro's pro".... or "he handles his business under pressure". Yeah, if the offense gives him a lot of runs, because history has shown he's pretty much an average pitcher at best. I am in Melvin's corner 95% of the time, but that much money for a Jeff Suppan is tough to swallow. Throughout his career he has shown that this is exactly what your going to get out of him... a slow fastball, an average breaking ball, and a .500 record. In a word, mediocre. Good thing we have him for 3 more years.
Anonymous: That's a bit a knee-jerk reaction with Suppan there. It'd be more accurate to look at his last 3 years of stats. He has a 3.95 ERA, which is right where he'll end up at the end of the year. For what it's worth, even though it means nothing, he’s 44-26 those 3 years. Also, his ERA was 4.04 before this game. One (really) bad start brought it up .7 points. A couple solid starts will have it right back down. Now, I'm not saying he's a Cy Young guy or anything, but he's a very solid pitcher, who brings veteran playoff experience to the team, a 4 ERA, and 200 IP every year. Sure, it may not be worth 42 Mil, but its worth a lot. To just flat out say he's not good is wrong.
Kpanz: Thanks for the comment... different opinions are more than welcome. I don't quite agree with the assessment that it would be more accurate to look at his last 3 years as oppose to his entire career. Maybe he has evolved into a different pitcher as he has gotten older, but they are still his stats, he pitched those games. It is very easy to take small samples of stats and make a player look better or worse than he actually is. Let’s take for example that he already has 7 losses this year... compare that to last year and it looks bad because he only had 7 for the entire season last year… not to mention that he is on pace for about 16 or 17 losses this year. That being said, Suppan will give you a really bad stat like last night, and he has shown better as well when he went 9 innings and only gave up 1 earned run on April 30th. There’s no doubt about it that he is a 6 inning, and 4+ ER kind of guy when it comes to his average outing... but is that considered very good? I would say that’s pretty much just okay...not very good by any means. I could be wrong, but to me that is not worth 42 mil. I will commend Suppan for being an innings eater, as he is usually able to stay in ballgames through bad innings. If the Crew makes the playoffs, and Suppan turns in a similar performance like he did for St. Louis last year in the World Series (which was very far below his career norms) against a very rusty Detroit team... then I will say he is worth it. Until then, based on his career stats, he is mediocre in my book.
4 comments:
Alright, I'll start this off by saying I agree with most of your assesment, just not all of it. The reason I looked at the last 3 years is becuase I think that would better represent his pitching ability, more so than his career. 3 years has nearly 600 innings to show for, and it shows how hes pitched more recently. If you wanted to predict how well you think a guy will do, and you could look at only 3 years, which would you pick? My geuss is the most recent 3. (unless you're Ben Sheets-esque, injuries etc.) Regarding W/L, I'm not a big fan of using it, becuase so much of it relies on stuff outside of pitchers control. You have to keep in mind that Jeff recieved more run support in St. Louis than Milwaukee. He was not and will never be an ace, and hes not a dominating or overpowering pitcher by any means. He is not a great pitcher, but simply a good pitcher. Good here meaning he's not bad at all, he's not great, but very solid. And, don't take my word for it, but isn't the league average ERA 4.5? Suppan is a 4 ERA guy, so that would make him above average. But I like him in that he gives you a reasonable chance to win every time he takes the mound. He rarely implodes like he did just yesterday. I agree that he's not worth 42 mil. But the veteran playoff experience definitely is important, as we have very little of that on our team.
A little off-topic, but in a way I'm very, very glad that we signed him. Not becuase of his pitching, but beucase he is pitching in the rotation for us. (that doesn't make very much sense, but oh well) The reason is becuase of Carlos Villanueva. He's been outstanding this year as a long relief guy. He's had numerous games where he really just saved the game for us. If we didn't have Soup, CV jr. would be in the rotation , and I don't know who could fill his shoes and perform half as good as he has in that late innings role. Granted, Carlos will be in the rotation soon, perhaps, switching with Vargas, as I don't think Yo will stay in the rotation for too long, but that's an entirely different topic.
Well, thanks for replying and good topic to discuss. Also, great site you have here.
Most projection systems only go back 3-4 years and weight the most recent ones the most. I'm not a big Suppan fan but what he did with Boston 10 years ago doesn't seem particularly relevant when trying to estimate his present talent level.
Suppan is probably around a 4.0 - 4.25 ERA pitcher right now. For better or worse, that's probably pretty close to $10 mil/year on the open market. The problem is that he probably won't be a 4.25 ERA pitcher in 2010.
Thanks for the compliments and comments… feel free to give your opinions any time and I may post them from time to time. You guys both about looking at the past 3 years are probably more accurate now that I think about it but I still stand by my assessment of him being a mediocre pitcher for what his contract is. Totally taking out the fact that the free agent market became inflated this winter and everyone pretty much had to increase their spending… because I would still say he is overpriced for $$20 - 30 million for example. The most comparable player I could think of is Esteban Loaiza. He has also been in the majors since 1995, and they have strikingly similar career numbers. Aside from Loaiza’s ridiculous good year he had in 2003, their numbers line up very closely. Loaiza’s career ERA is 4.62, while Soup’s is 4.61… they both have a win/loss percentage of just above (.500)… both have pitched about 2,000 innings.. and Loaiza does have about 300 more strikeouts and an all-star appearance. When looking at the last 3 years, Suppan does have the edge in ERA at 4.13, compared to Loaiza’s 4.79.
The point I’m trying to make is that Esteban Loaiza signed a 3 year, $21.375 million contract that was a 3 year deal through 2008, with a $7.5 million option for 2009. Compared to Jeff Suppan’s 4 year $42 million contract good through 2010, with a $12.75 million option for 2011. Granted Suppan has been a little better recently, but there stats are strikingly similar. Is Suppan really worth that much more? I don’t believe he is. It really shows me how much the free agent market ballooned this past off season… but it also shows me that Suppan’s performance in the 2006 playoffs really increased his contract by probably another $10-15 million at least. If they make the playoffs, to me, that will be the true test of whether Soup is worth his salt or not.
Post a Comment