BREWERS vs. CUBS 2008 COMPARISON

I put together a chart comparing each team's 2008 projected lineup. It won't be a comparison of the past as much as it will be a position by position breakdown for this season's expectations. Summarized at the end.

Edit: If anyone is interested... a popular Cubs blogger at wrigleyville23.com has taken some notice to my post. There is some back and forth in the comments of his post disagreeing with my selection of Kendall over Soto in particular.

BTW, this guy has also said this unintelligent comment: "The Milwaukee Brewers thought Craig Counsell and Tony Graffanino were a better option at third base than Rookie of the Year Ryan Braun."

- Anyone worth their salt knows why the Brewers didn't have Braun up at the beginning of the season. It wasn't about his defense (the cover) or that Counsellino was good enough, it was because of the arbitration clock. They knew he would rake, they just wanted to slow down his clock so they could keep him longer and cheaper. It's a common strategy, the Marlins saved something like $10 million by doing this with Cabrera his rookie year, and the Giants did it with Lincecum. It's typically done with uber-prospects, something the Cubs wouldn't know much about.

Position	Brewers Player	Cubs Player	Comments	Advantage
1B	Prince Fielder	Derek Lee	Both can hit the ball all over the field and are the respective leaders of their teams. Prince will definitely hit for much more power, and although his batting average will hover just under .300, Lee trumps him in that department. Lee also has a clear advantage defensively, but Prince's insane combination of power and better RBI production gives him a slight edge. Not to mention you get the feeling his breakout season of 50 homers and 119 RBIs isn't even his max potential.	Prince
2B	Rickie Weeks	Mark DeRosa	Tough comparison between a contact hitting vet, and an injury prone up-and-comer. Ricky has a big advantage in power and speed, as DeRosa barely has any of either. DeRosa hardly showed anything until a year ago, but he has come on as a pretty sound contact hitter. Weeks has more potential in his pinky than DeRosa has all together, but until he puts it together for a full season, DeRosa gets the edge.	DeRosa
SS	J.J. Hardy	Ryan Theriot	This one is pretty cut and dry in all aspects. In terms of fielding, Hardy is 100x better in that department. Both players will be in their 4th major league season, and get on base at about the same amount. Both have been hitting in the 2 hole, with a lot of power behind them. Really the only edge Theriot actually has is speed, as Hardy has much more fielding ability as well as better power, slugging, and RBI numbers.	Hardy
3B	Bill Hall	Aramis Ramirez	It's pretty difficult to predict which Bill Hall will show up in 2008... will it be the guy who socked 35 homers and 85 RBIs in 2006, or the guy who laid a big stinkbomb last year. Ramirez and Hall are similar in fielding style, where they both can make the spectacular play with power arms. When Hall is right he makes this comparison a lot harder, but for now Ramirez is one the most feared power hitters in the division, even with chronic injuries, so he will get the nod.	Aramis
LF	Ryan Braun	Alphonso Soriano	This is very very very difficult. Soriano has shown to probably be one of the top 3 all-around players in the majors. He can do it all. Braun is making a switch to the outfield, which is exactly what Soriano has gone through. Soriano has better speed and athleticism, but Braun appears to have better contact and plate discipline. If you project Braun's rookie of the year numbers for a full season, they would be better than any season Soriano has put together. But, like I said earlier, this comparison puts a lot of stock into what I think they will be like in 2008. Therefore, I'm going to give the edge to Braun because I think he has MVP type numbers in him this year.	Braun
CF	Mike Cameron	Felix Pie	A rare case where the Brewers have the veteran and the Cubs have the unproven talent. That being said, I don't see much out of Pie other than slick fielding and good speed. As good a fielder as Pie looks like he will be, Cameron still gets the edge there. Nothing about Pie's offensive game really scares you at all, so this is a pretty easy decision with Cameron.	Cameron
RF	Corey Hart	Kosuke Fukudome	Seeing as how I've never seen Fukudome play, it's hard to judge. From what I've read he's the opposite of your typical Cubs hitter. He's a savvy hitter with good OBP and likes to slap the ball all over the place. In his youtube highlights, he swings very similar to Ichiro. My guess is that he'll be a very good addition, especially if they hit him in front of Lee and Ramirez. However, I highly doubt he'll be as versatile as Corey Hart. I mean who is? Considering how unknown Fukudome is to me, I'll reserve judgment on this one.	Incomplete
C	Jason Kendall	Geovany Soto	Soto definitely looks like he could be really good. We know what Kendall is all about, he handles pitchers well and makes decent contact. He has slipped since he was a .300+ hitting all-star, because now he has a weak arm and next to nothing in the slugging department. I really wish the Brewers had someone like Soto in their system, but sadly they probably don't. I will be giving the edge to Kendall just because it's the safer bet. Also Soto didn't look good at all until he reached triple A. But don't say I didn't warn ya about him.	Kendall
SP #1	Ben Sheets	Carlos Zambrano	I'm just gonna go with Zambrano for durability reasons. Talent wise they are probably even, but we can just about guarantee Zambrano will throw 200+ innings again.	Big Z
SP #2	Jeff Suppan	Ted Lilly	Very similar pitchers. They both rely on pitch location, and have very stunningly close career averages. They are both good for 12-16 Wins, about 200 innings, about an ERA around 4. I think I'm gonna go with a push on this one. p.s. - I don't like either one.	EVEN
SP #3	Yovanni Gallardo	Rich Hill	Gallardo looks to be the ace of the future. Both guys are up-and-coming, but Hill does have a little more innings under his belt. Assuming Gallardo's little knee issue doesn't hold him back, we could easily see 17+ wins out of him. Hill and his sweet curve ball also has good potential, but he broke down over the course of last season. Plus Gallardo has the eye of the tiger.	Gallardo
SP #4	Carlos Villanueva or Chris Capuano	Jon Lieber	Capuano and Liber are in comparable situations because they both have put up solid numbers in recent years and then disappeared. In Lieber's case it has mostly been injuries, in Cappy's case it has been inconsistency. If the Crew do what I want them to and give the spot to Carlos V, it would be easy for me to predict a brewer advantage. With Cappy, you just don't know what you're gonna get, so it's not any easier. I've never been a real big fan of Lieber, especially with his vivid signs of age catching up to him.	Carlos V or Cappy
SP #5	Dave Bush or Claudio Vargas	Ryan Dempster or Jason Marquis or Sean Marshall	It'll most likely be Bush for the Brewers. Despite Pinella's recent frustrations with Marquis' cocky ascertations, if I had to guess I'd say he'll be in the 5 spot for the Cubs. Apparently they are feeling out Dempster whether or not he can start again. He wasn't very good at it the first time around, but who knows. If it's Bush I'm gonna give the edge to the Crew because Bush is good for 12 wins and I think they'll keep Dempster in the pen and Marquis and Marshall both suck.	Bush

• The count for the 8 positional players is Brewers 5, and Cubs 2 (with rightfield being incomplete). The closest battle for me was Braun vs. Soriano. If I had to change one of my decisions it would be this one. It could be a homer opinion coming out, but I anticipate Braun being insane this year. Other than that I don't think there's anyway you could argue the advantages Fielder, Kendall, Cameron, and Hardy all have.

• As for starting pitchers, I have the Brewers leading with 3, the Cubs with 1, and a tie at the #2 spot. Zambrano is the only advantage I see. The Brewers clearly have much more depth at the back end of the rotation. That area is definitely a weak spot for the Cubs. The only possible argument I see is that maybe maybe maybe Hill is even with Gallardo. It was the poise and consistency of Gallardo that put him over the edge for me.

• I didn't put the bullpens in the chart but I'll give the back end of the pen to the Cubs, and overall depth to the Brewers. Dempster is solid, Marmol is really awesome and should be their closer if they had brains, and Howry is really good. Their top 3 I think will be better than our top 3 of Gagne, Turnbow, and Riske. Overall bullpen depth is really no question though, because they have Wood, Eyre, Wuertz, and Hart. They all suck pretty bad in my opinion, especially Eyre.

• Overall, I believe the Brewers have a slight edge. This positional breakdown doesn't examine things like the dominance one player may have over his counterpart or certain variables like coaching. It does, however, show that the Brewers having a minor advantage in positional players and starting pitchers. If there are any areas in which you disagree with my analysis, please feel free to let me know.

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Comments:

Andy commented at 3:04 pm on March 3rd:

its so hard looking at this from the outside looking in.. and as much as i LOATHE the cubs.. i think they are a much improved club this year.. the bullpen is something you noted you left out.. but really needs to be addressed.. i am terrified about our bullpen.. gagnes first showing in spring training didnt do anything to qwell this at all..

one of my heros.. peter gammons.. reported a "STRONG" kerry wood in the bullpen this year for the cubs.. added to the great veteran (howry/wuertz/eyre) and young talent (marmol, pignatiello, hart) this is a area where the cubs could WIN games.. where i fear we could lose some..

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I kept the feelings out of it and tried to be objective as possible. That being said, I think their fans are arrogant bastards, and I hope they finish in last place. I’m not sure how much they improved, but it’s possible. It all hinges on how good Fukudome is for them. If he can give them good OBP numbers, it will be a huge lift to them I think.

You’re exactly right about the bullpen. I talked about this in my “I got a fever” post a little bit. They are a big unknown for many brewer fans. I wouldn’t be shocked if they dominated or imploded… a very weird feeling I must say.

One more thing… FOR THE LOVE OF GOD DON’T EVER SAY GREAT AND SCOTT EYRE IN THE SAME SENTENCE EVER AGAIN. That man is pile of dung. I think Brian Shouse could pitch circles around him, and I don’t even like Brian Shouse.

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The Zoner commented at 8:42 pm on March 5th: Enjoyed the post--and the rivalry. I think you were very fair but Soto totally blows Kendall away defensively (took his job last year) and he has much more power. And he dominated AAA last year.

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Thanks for posting Zoner. Soto is still ridiculously unproven, that is the sole reason I put Kendall ahead. He played 18 freakin games last year, sure he played well, but that's not nearly enough to go on. He did rake in triple A, which is why I thought he could very well be an all-star catcher some day. We just don't know. Would anyone really be that surprised if he came out and hit .200 for the first half of the season? Not me. Kendall is the safer pick.

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The Zoner commented at 9:13 am on March 6th:

OK. But my point is that based on defense alone he is still better than Kendall. His bat is a plus--if it happens. But like Braun, Soto was a highly regarded minor league player. There has to be some weight given to that.

And right on about Braun; it was all about service time.

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Alright fair enough, I will agree that Soto has the defensive edge. It has looked like Kendall has lot a little arm strength and all that. But his biggest asset according to Brewers personnel is that he handles pitchers extremely well. I don't know how true that is, but if it is, then that has to count for something. I believe I read somewhere that the Cubs and A's team ERA's improved last year once Kendall joined the club.

Soto's minor league dominance last year definitely has weight and is exactly why this is a somewhat close comparison. If we were solely basing it on his 18 games last year, that would be pretty ridiculous. Sidenote: Soto is a good prospect but nowhere near the high caliber prospect Braun was in my opinion.

Thanks for confirming my other Braun comment, for how popular that guy's blog is at wrigleyfield23.com, he doesn't seem to know what he's talking about too much.

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